|
|
|
Statistics
Main Page
Resources
related to Statistics. Some items are
from my Introduction to Statistics class from NYU (New York University, Stern School of
Business).
Probability and Statistics in 10 Minutes
Click on these
links for and intro to concepts, terminology and symbols for Probability and
Statistics.
Part 1: Looking at Data in 10 Minutes
Part 2: Probability in 10 Minutes
Sample Midterms and Finals
See here for
Sample Midterms and Finals, one version with Questions only and another with
both the Questions and the Answers, i.e., the Answer Key
Link: Sample Midterms and
Finals
Probability Versus
Statistics
The full name
of the topic is ‘Probability and Statistics’, which is often condensed
to just the term ‘Statistics’, though they are technical two separate things:
1) ‘Probability’
as a topic relates to calculating the odds of something. E.g. if you roll a pair of dice, what are the
odds you get a 7. The odds for that are
6/36, by the way. Interpreted as 6 out
of every 36 rolls will yield a pair of dice that sum to 7. That could be a 1 plus a 6, a 2 plus a 5 or a
3 plus a 4 or vice-versa.
2) ‘Statistics’
relates to these two concepts:
2.1)
Calculating a ‘Statistic’, which is a descriptor of a certain set of
numbers. The most common statistics are
2.1.1) The
‘Average’, a.k.a., ‘Arithmetic Mean’ and
2.1.2) The
‘Standard Deviation’, which is the square root of the ‘Variance’.
If numbers are
like nouns, then Statistics are like adjectives, the words that describe them.
For example,
if you have the heights of 10 people in a room, you might describe that set of
numbers by giving the average. You might
say, the average height is 5 feet and 6 inches.
Or 1.67 meters, for my friends currently enjoying the metric system.
2.2) The
second part relates to Statistical Testing.
This includes topics such as sampling, sample design, and estimating
values.
2.2.1) Point
Estimates, Confidence Intervals, and Confidence Levels
Estimating a value
would typically have both your ‘point estimate’, i.e., one number that is your
best guess, I mean, best estimate based on the data, and then, typically, also
a range, which is called ‘Confidence Interval’.
A confidence
interval is two sided, e.g., like they’ll say, typically, a given election poll
has a certain Point Estimate, plus or minus 3%
The plus or minus part describes the Range that is the ‘Confidence
Interval’.
A ‘Confidence
Level’ is one-sided. This is the case
where you are concerned only with items being above.. or, alternately, being
below a certain threshold. An example of
this from Finance is the concept in Market Risk called ‘VaR’ or
‘Value-at-Risk’. A VaR calculation is
typically concerned with losses with less than a 5% threshold, i.e.,
‘confidence level’. Or, alternately, a
1% level.
An Unbiased
Estimator of the Variance
If you have
ever taken an Intro to Statistics class, see if this has happened to:
Your teacher
tells you to use ‘n – 1’ instead of ‘n’ when calculating the Standard Deviation
or Variation of a set of numbers. Where
‘n’ stands for ‘number of items in the sample’, e.g., if your sample size was
10, then ‘n – 1’ would be 9.
This is
confusing for two reasons:
1) Your
teacher never explains it. You get a ‘just
do it this way’ response. Translation? Your
teacher likely doesn’t know.
2) By
comparison, when you are told that when you calculate the sample mean, you just
use the sample size, i.e., the ‘n’ and not the ‘n – 1’. You’re smart, so you recognize the
inconstancy.
For those of
you familiar with Excel, these are the functions involved:
For Standard
Deviation:
STDEVP for the calc that uses ‘N’.
STDEV for the calc that uses ‘N - 1’.
For Variance:
VARP for the calc that uses ‘N’.
VAR for the calc that uses ‘N - 1’.
Note: don’t confuse ‘VAR’ here, which means
‘Variance’, with the acronym ‘VaR’, which is mentioned above as an example of
statistics, which means ‘Value-at-Risk’.
In the Excel
functions, the ‘P’ at the end is for ‘Population’, which means the complete set
of all possible values of a distribution.
The version without the ‘P’ is used for a ‘Sample’.
What is
provided here is the best and most intuitive description you’ll ever see
explaining why the right answer for an unbiased estimator of the variance or
standard deviation has to be the ‘N – 1’ version.
Link: An
Unbiased Estimator of the Variance